Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach

Volume: 81, Issue: 2, Pages: 644 - 663
Published: Feb 1, 2012
Abstract
How do decision makers weight private and official information sources which are correlated and differ in accuracy and bias? This paper studies how traders update subjective risk perceptions after receiving expert opinions, using a unique data set from a prediction market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain...
Paper Details
Title
Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach
Published Date
Feb 1, 2012
Volume
81
Issue
2
Pages
644 - 663
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