Genetic Programming and Adaboosting based churn prediction for Telecom

Published on Dec 13, 2012 in SMC (Systems, Man and Cybernetics)
· DOI :10.1109/ICSMC.2012.6377917
Adnan Idris10
Estimated H-index: 10
(PIEAS: Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences),
Asifullah Khan36
Estimated H-index: 36
(PIEAS: Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences),
Yeon Soo Lee17
Estimated H-index: 17
(DCU: Catholic University of Daegu)
Churn prediction model guides the customer relationship management to retain the customers who are expected to quit. In recent times, a number of tree based ensemble classifiers are used to model the churn prediction in telecom. These models predict the churners quite satisfactorily; however, there is a considerable margin of improvement. In telecom, the enormous size, imbalanced nature, and high dimensionality of the training dataset mainly cause the classification algorithms to suffer in accurately predicting the churners. In this paper, we use Genetic Programming (GP) based approach for modeling the challenging problem of churn prediction in telecom. Adaboost style boosting is used to evolve a number of programs per class. Finally, the predictions are made with the resulting programs using the higher output, from a weighted sum of the outputs of programs per class. The prediction accuracy is evaluated using 10 fold cross validation on standard telecom datasets and a 0.89 score of area under the curve is observed. We hope that such an efficient churn prediction approach might be significantly beneficial for the competitive telecom industry.
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