The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence

Volume: 103, Issue: 2, Pages: 277 - 290
Published: Jul 1, 2007
Abstract
Intuition suggests that having more information can increase prediction accuracy of uncertain outcomes. In four experiments, we show that more knowledge can decrease accuracy and simultaneously increase prediction confidence. Participants were asked to predict basketball games sampled from a National Basketball Association season. All participants were provided with statistics (win record, halftime score), while half were additionally given the...
Paper Details
Title
The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence
Published Date
Jul 1, 2007
Volume
103
Issue
2
Pages
277 - 290
Citation AnalysisPro
  • Scinapse’s Top 10 Citation Journals & Affiliations graph reveals the quality and authenticity of citations received by a paper.
  • Discover whether citations have been inflated due to self-citations, or if citations include institutional bias.