Robert S. Erikson
Columbia University
Positive economicsErikson's stages of psychosocial developmentPublic opinionPolitical economyEconometricsIdeologyEconomicsMacroPolitical sciencePresidential systemLawEconomic indicatorPresidential electionState (polity)PolityPublic administrationPublic relationsVotingDemocracyPolitics
157Publications
49H-index
8,293Citations
Publications 145
Newest
#1Joseph BafumiH-Index: 15
#2Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
Last. Christopher Wlezien (TU: Temple University)H-Index: 45
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According to the frequent polling on the generic ballot for Congress, the Democrats hold a large advantage leading up to the vote on November 7. But does this Democratic edge mean that the Democrats will win a majority of House seats? Doubts are often expressed about the accuracy of the generic ballot polls. And even if the polls are correct in indicating a majority of votes going to Democratic candidates, further doubts are expressed about whether the Democrats’ vote margin will be sufficient t...
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#2Robert S. EriksonH-Index: 49
Last. Bernard ManinH-Index: 16
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For the past two decades the main topic of research in comparative politics has been democratization. The question troubling scholars has been why some countries become and stay democratic, while others either do not democratize or waver between democracy and authoritarianism. This research program has been both pro lific and successful. Today, a considerable amount is known about why democracies are distributed around the world the way they are.1 Nevertheless, the third wave has largely ended, ...
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#1Christopher Wlezien (University of Oxford)H-Index: 45
#2Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
Prior to the 2004 presidential election we provided forecasts of the final vote relying on two different models. The first model follows what we did in 1996 and 2000 and relies on two variables: the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the 13th quarter of the sitting president's term—March of the election year—which provides advance information about income growth leading up to Election Day while also summarizing prior income growth; and the current value of pre...
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#1Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
#2Costas Panagopoulos (NYU: New York University)H-Index: 25
Last. Christopher WlezienH-Index: 45
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Only in recent years has the "likely voter" technology been extended to polls well in advance of an election. In the case of the 2000 U.S. presidential election, CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking polls indi- cated considerable fluctuations in likely voter preferences, greater than among the larger pool of registered voters surveyed. This article explores how Gallup's likely voter model exaggerates the reported volatility of voter preferences during the campaign. Much of the reported variation in can...
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#1Christopher Wlezien (University of Oxford)H-Index: 45
#2Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
forecast is not enough. And the most important economic shocks to the economy are the late shocks, which may arrive too late to be measured by the forecaster. Other events also impact, such as (in 2004) the Iraq war. Incorporating presidential approval into the model helps to control for "other" events that economic indicators ignore, but obviously only those that are observable by the time of the latest approval reading. They also don't reveal much about voters' comparative judgments of the two...
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#1Robert S. EriksonH-Index: 49
Many of the findings regarding economic voting derive from the micro-level analyses of survey data, in which respondents’ survey evaluations of the economy are shown to predict the vote. This paper investigates the causal nature of this relationship and argues that cross-sectional consistency between economic evaluations and vote choice is mainly if not entirely due to vote choice influencing the survey response. Moreover, the evidence suggest that apart from this endogenously induced partisan b...
#1Michael B. MackuenH-Index: 23
#2James A. StimsonH-Index: 28
Last. Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
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Nous examinons comment l’interet manifeste par les citoyens pour la chose publique faconne la politique presidentielle. Notre outil d’analyse consiste en un macro-modele de la politique americaine fonde sur des donnees empiriques et des evaluations econometriques tirees de la deuxieme moitie du 20e siecle. Nous procedons a des simulations stochastiques pour determiner dans quelle mesure une variation de l’attention du public influe sur la responsabilite des elus devant l’electorat et sur l’effic...
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#1Michael B. MackuenH-Index: 23
#2James A. StimsonH-Index: 28
Last. Robert S. EriksonH-Index: 49
view all 3 authors...
We consider how citizen attentiveness to public affairs shapes the character of presidential politics and policymaking. Our analytic tool is an empirically-grounded macro model of US politics, one rooted in data and econometric estimates taken from the second half of the 20th century. We conduct stochastic simulation experiments to determine how varying attentiveness affects electoral accountability and the efficiency of dynamic representation. Qualitatively, attentiveness yields greater account...
#1Christopher Wlezien (University of Oxford)H-Index: 45
#2Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
Little is known about the evolution of electoral sentiment over the campaign cycle. How does the outcome come into focus as the election cycle evolves? Do voters' preferences evolve in a patterned and understandable way? What role does the election campaign play? In this article, we address these issues. We translate general arguments about the role of campaigns into a set of formal, statistical expectations. Then, we outline an empirical analysis and examine poll results for the 15 U.S. preside...
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