Joseph P. Simmons
University of Pennsylvania
StatisticsReplication (statistics)HeuristicsOutcome (game theory)Artificial intelligencePsychologyActuarial scienceMatching (statistics)CognitionCognitive psychologyAnchoringOptimismLeagueP-hackingFootballPublication biasIncentiveMathematicsComputer scienceSocial psychology
109Publications
31H-index
7,267Citations
Publications 87
Newest
#1Celia Gaertig (U of C: University of Chicago)H-Index: 1
#1Celia Gaertig (U of C: University of Chicago)H-Index: 4
Last. Joseph P. Simmons (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 31
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Prior research suggests that averaging two guesses from the same person can improve quantitative judgments, a phenomenon known as the “wisdom of the inner crowd.” In this article, we find that this...
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#2Deborah A. Small (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 30
Last. Joseph P. Simmons (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 31
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Previous research suggests that choice causes an illusion of control-that it makes people feel more likely to achieve preferable outcomes, even when they are selecting among options that are functionally identical (e.g., lottery tickets with an identical chance of winning). This research has been widely accepted as evidence that choice can have significant welfare effects, even when it confers no actual control. In this article, we report the results of 17 experiments that examined whether choic...
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#1Joseph P. Simmons (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 31
#2Leif D. Nelson (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 38
Last. Uri Simonsohn (Ramon Llull University)H-Index: 38
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2 CitationsSource
#1Joseph P. Simmons (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 31
#2Leif D. Nelson (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 38
Last. Uri Simonsohn (Ramon Llull University)H-Index: 38
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#1Uri Simonsohn (Ramon Llull University)H-Index: 38
#2Joseph P. Simmons (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 31
Last. Leif D. Nelson (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 38
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1 CitationsSource
#1Uri Simonsohn (Ramon Llull University)H-Index: 38
#2Joseph P. Simmons (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 31
Last. Leif D. Nelson (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 38
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Empirical results hinge on analytical decisions that are defensible, arbitrary and motivated. These decisions probably introduce bias (towards the narrative put forward by the authors), and they certainly involve variability not reflected by standard errors. To address this source of noise and bias, we introduce specification curve analysis, which consists of three steps: (1) identifying the set of theoretically justified, statistically valid and non-redundant specifications; (2) displaying the ...
10 CitationsSource
#1Joshua Lewis (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 6
#2Joseph P. Simmons (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 31
How do people decide whether to incur costs to increase their likelihood of success? In investigating this question, we offer a theory called prospective outcome bias. According to this theory, people tend to make decisions that they expect to feel good about after the outcome has been realized. Because people expect to feel best about decisions that are followed by successes-even when the decisions did not cause those successes-they will pay more to increase their chances of success when succes...
1 CitationsSource
Last. Joseph P. SimmonsH-Index: 31
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#1Joachim Vosgerau (Bocconi University)H-Index: 15
#2Uri Simonsohn (Ramon Llull University)H-Index: 38
Last. Joseph P. Simmons (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 31
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: Several researchers have relied on, or advocated for, internal meta-analysis, which involves statistically aggregating multiple studies in a paper to assess their overall evidential value. Advocates of internal meta-analysis argue that it provides an efficient approach to increasing statistical power and solving the file-drawer problem. Here we show that the validity of internal meta-analysis rests on the assumption that no studies or analyses were selectively reported. That is, the technique ...
15 CitationsSource