Andreas Graefe
Columbia University
StatisticsConsensus forecastPolitical economyOutcome (game theory)EconometricsPsychologyActuarial scienceEconomicsForecast errorPolitical scienceEconometric modelPresidential systemPerceptionPresidential electionGolden Rule (fiscal policy)Test (assessment)Index (economics)Popular voteIndex methodComputer scienceComponent (UML)
92Publications
18H-index
1,400Citations
Publications 76
Newest
1 CitationsSource
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While combining forecasts is well-known to reduce error, the question of how to best combine forecasts remains. Prior research suggests that combining is most beneficial when relying on diverse forecasts that incorporate different information. Here I provide evidence in support of this assumption by analyzing data from the PollyVote project, which has published combined forecasts of the popular vote in U.S. presidential elections since 2004. Prior to the 2020 election, the PollyVote revised its ...
1 CitationsSource
The century-long tradition of reporting poll results as vote shares does not provide direct answers to the very questions voters are most interested in (e.g., who will govern). The present study provides experimental evidence showing that voters are largely unable to derive such information from polls themselves. When estimating the likelihood of two electoral outcomes, participants failed to realize that small changes in poll numbers can have large electoral consequences. The results suggest th...
3 CitationsSource
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Abstract The present study reviews the accuracy of four methods (polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, and quantitative models) for forecasting the two German federal elections in 2013 and 2017. On average across both elections, polls and prediction markets were most accurate, while experts and quantitative models were least accurate. However, the accuracy of individual forecasts did not correlate across elections. That is, the methods that were most accurate in 2013 did not perform partic...
4 CitationsSource
#1Andreas GraefeH-Index: 18
#2Kesten C. GreenH-Index: 16
Last. J. Scott ArmstrongH-Index: 77
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PROBLEM: Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts? METHODS: To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, U.K., and the U.S. The guidelines direct forecasters using causal models to be conservative to account for uncertainty by (I) modifying ef...
2 CitationsSource
#1Mario HaimH-Index: 7
#2Andreas GraefeH-Index: 18
Last. Hans-Bernd BrosiusH-Index: 33
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#1Mario Haim (LMU: Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)H-Index: 7
#2Andreas GraefeH-Index: 18
Last. Hans-Bernd Brosius (LMU: Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)H-Index: 33
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In offering personalized content geared toward users’ individual interests, recommender systems are assumed to reduce news diversity and thus lead to partial information blindness (i.e., filter bubbles). We conducted two exploratory studies to test the effect of both implicit and explicit personalization on the content and source diversity of Google News. Except for small effects of implicit personalization on content diversity, we found no support for the filter-bubble hypothesis. We did, howev...
140 CitationsSource