Jack B. Soll
Duke University
StatisticsIntuitionProbability distributionPsychologyActuarial scienceEconomicsCognitionCognitive psychologyGroup decision-makingPower (social and political)CrowdsQuality (business)Advice (complexity)Know-howWisdom of crowdsUncertainty quantificationMathematicsComputer scienceOverconfidence effectSocial psychology
39Publications
17H-index
3,109Citations
Publications 36
Newest
#1Daniel C. Feiler (Duke University)H-Index: 7
#2Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
This article discusses how people often neglect the financial costs associated with driving. As a consequence they take trips that are contrary to their own self-interest and cause unnecessary harm to the environment through carbon emissions. Two empirical studies demonstrate that when people do explicitly consider financial costs they are inclined to drive less. The article concludes by offering several solutions to help people learn and account for their driving costs.
8 CitationsSource
A basic issue in social influence is how best to change one's judgment in response to learning the opinions of others. This article examines the strategies that people use to revise their quantitative estimates on the basis of the estimates of another person. The authors note that people tend to use 2 basic strategies when revising estimates: choosing between the 2 estimates and averaging them. The authors developed the probability, accuracy, redundancy (PAR) model to examine the relative effect...
215 CitationsSource
#1Richard P. Larrick (Duke University)H-Index: 37
#2Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
Using "miles per gallon" as a measure of fuel efficiency leads people to undervalue the benefits of replacing the most inefficient automobiles.
227 CitationsSource
#1Richard P. Larrick (Duke University)H-Index: 37
#2Katherine A. Burson (UM: University of Michigan)H-Index: 10
Last. Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
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Abstract A common social comparison bias—the better-than-average-effect—is frequently described as psychologically equivalent to the individual-level judgment bias known as overconfidence. However, research has found “Hard–easy” effects for each bias that yield a seemingly paradoxical reversal: Hard tasks tend to produce overconfidence but worse-than-average perceptions, whereas easy tasks tend to produce underconfidence and better-than-average effects. We argue that the two biases are in fact p...
193 CitationsSource
#1Richard P. Larrick (Duke University)H-Index: 37
#2Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
Averaging estimates is an effective way to improve accuracy when combining expert judgments, integrating group members' judgments, or using advice to modify personal judgments. If the estimates of two judges ever fall on different sides of the truth, which we term bracketing, averaging must outperform the average judge for convex loss functions, such as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). We hypothesized that people often hold incorrect beliefs about averaging, falsely concluding that the average of ...
29 Citations
#1Richard P. Larrick (Duke University)H-Index: 37
#2Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
2 CitationsSource
#1Richard P. Larrick (Duke University)H-Index: 37
#2Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
Averaging estimates is an effective way to improve accuracy when combining expert judgments, integrating group members judgments, or using advice to modify personal judgments. If the estimates of two judges ever fall on different sides of the truth, which we term bracketing, averaging must outperform the average judge for convex loss functions, such as mean absolute deviation (MAD). We hypothesized that people often hold incorrect beliefs about averaging, falsely concluding that the average of t...
256 CitationsSource
#1Joshua KlaymanH-Index: 18
#2Jack B. SollH-Index: 17
Last. Anders WinmanH-Index: 22
view all 4 authors...
14 CitationsSource