Gerald L. Moeller
FinanceDefinition of the situationIncremental decision treeNetwork modelAND gateAlternative energyEngineering managementRisk analysis (engineering)Flow networkCritical path methodMachine learningAlternating decision treeCompetitor analysisData collectionProduct (category theory)NothingBusinessProbability distributionEconometricsStrategic thinkingArtificial intelligenceLogic synthesisProject managementCash flowProject management triangleMicroeconomicsSet (abstract data type)ID3 algorithmStrategic leadershipScenario analysisNew product developmentProcess managementHost (network)Extreme project managementSystems engineeringAnalytic functionOperations managementControl (management)PresentationNew VenturesOperational planningWeapon systemCourse (navigation)Production (economics)Risk analysisTask (project management)Logic optimizationCapital requirementWork schedulingAbsolutely CertainProject selectionComplex problemsNetwork constructionLife spanPath costCumulative frequency distributionShock testFourth momentMathematical relationshipComparative evaluationCompletion timeNetwork analysisProject risk managementIndustrial organizationSoftware project managementComputer scienceLinear programmingOperations researchProcess (engineering)Fixed costStrategic planningReputationManagement scienceDecision tree learningMergers and acquisitionsStrategic controlProject charterProject planningDiscountingScheduleProject portfolio managementInflationTRACE (psycholinguistics)Program evaluation and review techniqueProject sponsorshipDecision treeStrategic business unitGrafting (decision trees)EstimationBusiness decision mapping
14Publications
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Publications 14
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#1Sang M. Lee (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. Digman (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
Stochastic network techniques—VERT, in particular—are “naturals” for analysis of strategic decisions. We have seen that VERT-3 can analyze alternative courses of action in advance by incorporating various relationships and probabilistic data and can generate stochastic output information in terms of performance, costs, time, and risks. While each of the problems examined thus far—development of the Z-car, the plant investment decision, the new-product development problem, decision trees, and the...
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#1Sang M. Lee (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. Digman (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
Decision trees represent an attempt to include realism in decision situations by adding consideration of several possible chance events. Expected-value calculations are then used to determine which of a set of alternate decisions is most desirable. Let us examine an often-used decision tree example to illustrate some of the weaknesses present in the decision tree approach, as well as some of the advantages stochastic techniques such as VERT-3 can offer.
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#1Sang M. Lee (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. Digman (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
VERT-3 provides the decisionmaker with a powerful tool for evaluating alternative or competing concepts, projects, or approaches. For example, projects or investments with useful life spans of varying lengths can be compared in terms of numerous measures of performance (results), cost, and time, and with full consideration of influences such as inflation and discounting. The following example represents a simplified actual project selection problem with multiple performance attributes and constr...
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#1Sang M. Lee (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. Digman (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
Network techniques for management use were popularized by the development of the Critical Path Method (CPM) and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in the mid- to late fifties. These techniques were designed to facilitate the planning and control of large-scale construction and engineering development projects and were soon proven to be very effective aids in the management of complex, one-of-a-kind undertakings (see Work Scheduling Techniques, 1968). In the ensuing years, the tec...
1 CitationsSource
#1Sang M. Lee (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. Digman (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
In this chapter we examine, compare, and evaluate the major networking techniques useful in management applications. First we briefly review the management science concepts of simulation and modeling and recap the various types of models and major approaches to model construction. Next we trace the development of important network models for management use and briefly describe each model. We conclude with a comparative evaluation of the major techniques.
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#1Sang M. Lee (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. Digman (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
As we discussed in part I, one of the most pervasive and recurring situations encountered by management is the necessity of making decisions with incomplete or inadequate information about the available alternatives. These “decisions under risk” usually relate to three general categories: cost, schedule, and performance (production levels, returns on investments, and so on). To assist the manager in making decisions under risk, many techniques have been developed and used in recent years; linear...
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#1Sang M. Lee (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. Digman (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
The output options, data, and reports generated by VERT are extensive and are perhaps some of the most important reasons why the technique is so useful in network analysis (see Brown 1975). Of course, since the analyst selects the outputs to assist the manager in the decision/risk analysis, only those outputs pertinent to the problem at hand and meaningful to the manager need be selected.
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#1Sang M. Lee (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. Digman (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
As we have mentioned several times, VERT-3 and other stochastic networking techniques are especially powerful in the evaluation of alternative concepts and approaches. The example presented in this chapter is a hypothetical situation that illustrates more of VERT-3’s features than any of the previous examples; however, one should keep in mind that this example may still be simpler than an actual application. For instance, the relatively straightforward presentation of the data for this problem t...
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#1Sang M. Lee (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. Digman (NU: University of Nebraska–Lincoln)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
The problem discussed in this chapter illustrates the application of VERT-3 to a new-product development decision. The company in question has learned that one of its major competitors is working on a new product that, if successfully introduced, could provide the competitor with a significant advantage in the marketplace. If the competitor were to introduce the new product before this company’s own version of the product was ready, damage would be done to its present reputation and image of inn...
Source
#1Sang M. LeeH-Index: 59
#2Gerald L. MoellerH-Index: 2
Last. Lester A. DigmanH-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
11 Citations